They say hindsight is 20:20. This has always seemed a bit of an overestimation. Memory is notoriously fault-ridden itself, so if we can't even remember the past with perfect resolution, how do we expect to be able to think about it with perfect clarity? Just as we become less and less able to predict the farther futures, we are less and less able to remember the distant past. We fumble to recollect and reconstruct our thoughts, and of course others' motivations are an even greater mystery.
Still, for all that, we do pretty well. We may repeat the mistakes of new and ancient history, but we definitely learn from them too--otherwise we wouldn't exist! :) Any hominid that barely escapes a lion jumping out of a bush that isn't cautious about the next rustling bush he sees isn't going to last very long. We certainly believe that we are smart enough to elect different, hopefully better, leaders if the current ones aren't helping much (although certain elections provide distressing counterexamples). In view of all the learning we do, I'd estimate something closer to 25:25 hindsight. Good enough to survive, learn, and thus progress, but bad enough for history to repeat itself in the worst ways imaginable.
Now what about foresight? Presumably, if people are making such a big deal out of hindsight, it should be pretty bad in contrast. In fact, I'd score it at about the same, 25:25. The future is foggy, certainly, but bad viewing conditions don't imply that our eyesight is worse, do they? Even 20:20 individuals have a hard time seeing in pouring rain. Indeed, when the world seems to be falling around us, foresight often goes out the window as well.
But think about it. We can predict and control our futures to a remarkable degree! In the immediate future, we have enough precision to be able to answer specifically when people ask where we'll be and what we'll be doing in a few hours, and in generalities for days, weeks, even months. We have enough abstract foresight to plan for decades, going through school and college in the belief that it will improve our future. So all in all, we're probably about 25:25 in both foresight and hindsight, though admittedly the future is foggier than the mists of the past. But really, I think that's good enough. :)
Still, for all that, we do pretty well. We may repeat the mistakes of new and ancient history, but we definitely learn from them too--otherwise we wouldn't exist! :) Any hominid that barely escapes a lion jumping out of a bush that isn't cautious about the next rustling bush he sees isn't going to last very long. We certainly believe that we are smart enough to elect different, hopefully better, leaders if the current ones aren't helping much (although certain elections provide distressing counterexamples). In view of all the learning we do, I'd estimate something closer to 25:25 hindsight. Good enough to survive, learn, and thus progress, but bad enough for history to repeat itself in the worst ways imaginable.
Now what about foresight? Presumably, if people are making such a big deal out of hindsight, it should be pretty bad in contrast. In fact, I'd score it at about the same, 25:25. The future is foggy, certainly, but bad viewing conditions don't imply that our eyesight is worse, do they? Even 20:20 individuals have a hard time seeing in pouring rain. Indeed, when the world seems to be falling around us, foresight often goes out the window as well.
But think about it. We can predict and control our futures to a remarkable degree! In the immediate future, we have enough precision to be able to answer specifically when people ask where we'll be and what we'll be doing in a few hours, and in generalities for days, weeks, even months. We have enough abstract foresight to plan for decades, going through school and college in the belief that it will improve our future. So all in all, we're probably about 25:25 in both foresight and hindsight, though admittedly the future is foggier than the mists of the past. But really, I think that's good enough. :)
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